“Unusual Activity” at NK Ballistic Missile Site

From Nightwatch:

“The activity has prompted concerns Pyongyang is planning a new round of ballistic missile tests of either medium or longer range missiles,” the unnamed officers said. But CNN added, “The activity is in its early stages and it’s not yet possible to determine what the North Koreans are doing.” The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff on Sunday said, “We haven’t confirmed reports of signs of North Korea preparing for a missile launch in Shinori.”

The North has never launched a Nodong ballistic missile from a west coast facility. Public preparation for a launch from a west coast site could be a factor in the provocative military actions off the west coast and the bellicose rhetoric. For example, a surprise launch form the west coast into international waters would be much more provocative and dangerous than one that occurred after the North had already ratcheted tension. In launching the North’s leaders would set a new precedent for medium range ballistic missile launches off the west coast as well as register their dissatisfaction with South Korea, or the Six Party Talks or a rejection of the Singapore tentative agreement, if that occurs.

A Nodong missile launch would lack the dramatic impact of an ICBM-scale launch, but it is one of the many tactics the North’s leaders can order to draw international attention.

Another SK Official Expelled From NK; Progress in the 6PT

North Korea has requested that an official working on an inter-Korean family reunion center be expelled, reports the Hankyoreh:

North Korea expelled Thursday a South Korean official from the construction site of an inter-Korean family reunion facility in its Mount Geumgang resort, a government spokesman said.
“A working level official withdrew from the construction site of the inter-Korean family reunion facility in Mount Geumgang between 4:30 and 5 p.m. today at the request of the North Korean side,” the spoksman[sic] said.

He added that the measure was in accordance with the North Korean position that it would not allow any South Korean government officials to cross the military demarcation line.
North Korea has warned that it would block the passage of South Korean officials across the demarcation line following remarks made by the chairman of the Suth[sic] Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff

This is the same family reunion center that was in the news earlier this year following allegations North Korea “diverted” millions of dollars worth of cash intended to help with the facility’s construction.

North Korea’s latest move is part of larger series of moves taken by North Korea over the past weeks to highlight their disapproval of the South’s new government,  among other things. North Korea is trying to keep the current state of hostilities at a low roil without getting the situation too agitated. Expect minor tit-for-tat measures to continue for the foreseeable future, unless a major breakthrough in the Six-Party Talks emerges.

We move to that story now.    

Major Western news outlets are now more optimistic in their assessment of Christopher Hill and Kim Gye Gwan’s Singapore meeting. Yesterday, Hill was tightlipped about progress, while North Korea’s KCNA trumpeted a major breakthrough. Hill now says they have “found a way forward,” and that we should expect moves in the next couple of weeks to solve the deadlock. No specifics were given, but Yonhap, via Hankyoreh reports:

The envoy repeatedly emphasized that the second phase of the denuclearization agreements involved a package of different elements, suggesting that the U.S. would be ready to act on its promised incentives to Pyongyang.
The second phase sequences disabling of North Korea’s main reactor and provision of the declaration, and the U.S. starting the process to remove Pyongyang from the State Department’s list of terrorism-sponsoring states. Washington would also lift sanctions on the North imposed under the Trading with the Enemy Act.
At the State Department, spokesman Sean McCormack reaffirmed that the U.S., along with other members of the six-party talks, is prepared “to fulfill our obligations, as North Korea fulfills its obligations.”
Thursday’s House briefing was heard by most of the committee members and their staff.
“I think it went okay,” said Hill. “They asked very fair questions.”

The Washington Post’s Glenn Gessler further elaborates. According to his sources, the U.S. may be prepared to lift two key sanctions against the North:

But after negotiations this week in Singapore and last month in Geneva, the United States and North Korea agreed that Pyongyang must “acknowledge” the allegations without precisely admitting them publicly.
That paves the way, diplomats said, for President Bush to remove North Korea from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism and to exempt it from the Trading With the Enemy Act.
U.S. officials have concluded it is more important to persuade North Korea to surrender its weapons-grade plutonium — enough for perhaps half a dozen weapons — than for the process to collapse over the impasse, according to Assistant Secretary of State Christopher R. Hill, the chief U.S. negotiator.

Assuming the North throws up no further roadblocks (a pretty big assumption), inter-Korean tensions may subside in the next few weeks. There is still a long way to go in this process. One wild card is the military: to what extent has the military been involved in fomenting the latest spasm of tension?  I have speculated before that the military, fearing it is losing its primacy in North Korean society, may be trying to reestablish its dominance by creating a minor crisis situation. Of course, that’s just my own idle hypothesizing.  

But Kim Jong Il is facing a desperate situation at home and needs to start earning foreign currency and collecting aid so he can feed his people. A breakthrough probably bodes well for regional peace, but it does not bode well for reform in North Korea.

China Eases NK Sanctions

In a move that may give a boost to Kim Jong Il’s increasingly desperate regime, Chinese authorities announced the easing of trade restrictions between the North and Chinese border provinces. Daily NK reports that North Korean citizens are now able to open bank accounts in China and to settle transactions in Yuan. Daily NK reports on the ramifications of this move:

With the adoption of the system, North Korean people and companies can open Yuan bank accounts within China after some formalities and use the accounts for trade settlement with their Chinese business partners. Accordingly, North Korea is now able to buy foreign currencies such as dollars and euros with its Yuan income from trade. In addition, North Korea can legally bring in foreign currencies or send them to third countries

North Korean companies used to have difficulties of making a trade settlement with China in cash or by barter since the U.S. enacted financial sanctions on North Korea and China imposed economic sanctions regarding remittance and bank accounts after North Korea’s nuclear tests. However, China too suffered from the sanctions as the amount of Yuan smuggled into North Korea has skyrocketed proportional to the increasing volume of trade between North Korea and China.

By taking such measures, China is allowing North Koreans to help themselves through increasing trade and by giving them the opportunity to earn foreign currency. The results may help to ease some of the problems associated with the ongoing famine and thus help strengthen Kim’s grip on power. 

UPDATE: Bloomberg reports that Japan will extend its sanctions on North Korea for lack of cooperation on denuclearization and other outstanding issues:

Japan will extend sanctions against North Korea for six months after the communist country failed to make progress on returning abducted citizens and dismantling its nuclear program, the government’s top spokesman said.

The government will announce details of the extension tomorrow following cabinet approval, Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka Machimura said during a press conference in Tokyo. Japan banned imports from North Korea and barred its ships from calling on Japanese ports after North Korea test-fired missiles and a nuclear device in 2006.

 

 

 

The timing of this announcement is interesting, seeing as how it comes just one day after the North unilaterally announced the Six-Party Talks stalement had been solved. This lends creedence to the position that nothing has really changed–at least as far as Japan’s conditions are concerned.  Japan may be trying to signal its dissapointment that the abductee issue wasn’t mentioned  in the latest meeting between Hill and Kim.  Economically, the sanctions won’t affect North Korea much as they’ve already been in place. All that is happening is the period the sanctions are effective is being extended.  

 

Was an Agreement Reached?

North Korea is insisting it reached an agreement with the U.S. over the Six-Party Talks stalemate. According to the KCNA (via Hankyoreh):

“The recent Singapore agreement fully proved the effectiveness of the DPRK-U.S. talks,” the spokesman said, using the acronym for North Korea’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
“We will await the fulfillment of commitments made by those countries participating in the six-party talks,” he added.

The U.S. has remained tight-lipped about any deal. Christopher Hill told reporters that “significant progress” was made, but denied a “major breakthrough” occurred.

Chosun Ilbo reports that the two sides came to an agreement regarding the wording of the declaration:

In their meeting, the two sides reportedly agreed on wording in the declaration, which will not be released to the public, regarding suspicions about the North’s uranium enrichment program and transfer of nuclear technology to Syria. A diplomatic source said, “The wording in the declaration will probably persuade the U.S. Congress.”

According to Nighwatch’s analysis, the North’s preemptive declaration was a tactic to pressure the U.S.:

The North never announces good news on talks before the US, unless it is laying a trap. This is a setup to pressure the US administration into making concessions or to justify increased tension in the likely event the US balks, based on something the North will claim was promised them in Singapore. By NightWatch’s count this would be the third time since the start of Six Party Talks that the North has pulled this stunt.

Kim Jong Il Visits the Military

Kim Jong Il, who began the year by visiting economic sites and pledging to make economic development his top priority for the year, has decided to pay a visit on a military unit. Kim’s public appearances are often interpreted as indicators of Kim’s priorities. This latest visit comes amidst rising tensions between North and South. Hankyoreh cites unnamed “experts” who believe the rise in tensions were orchestrated by the military:

Seoul experts have said the confrontation was led by the North Korean military.
“He [Kim Jong Il] expressed satisfaction over the fact that all the soldiers of the company have acquired high military technology and combat capacity enough to beat back the enemy’s invasion at a single stroke,” the Korean Central News Agency said in its English report of Kim’s visit to the KPA Unit 350. The KCNA report, monitored in Seoul, was dated April 5 but dispatched on the 6th.

In the latest salvo in the Inter-Korean war of words, the Rodong Shinmun continued to direct bellicose threats at the South:

“It is as clear as noonday that their persistent insistence on the above-said provocative assertion would only lead to a war on this land (KCNA, via AFP)”

Finally, the Associated Press reports on a Rodong Shinmun warning to the South that it’s government “will not last:”

South Korea’s new government will not last if it continues to allow its U.S.-led policy to ruin reconciliation efforts on the Korean peninsula, North Korea said Monday.
The North’s official Rodong Shinmun newspaper criticized President Lee Myung-bak’s government for “following the U.S. imperialists” and driving inter-Korean relations to catastrophe.
Those who “dance to the whistle of outside forces will only suffer a collapse,” it said in a commentary.

UPDATE: From Nightwatch:

Kim regularly visits military units and does so more frequently than civilian facilities because of safety and security considerations. He feels safer among the military than in the general public. The timing of the new report reinforces the image that the nation is prepared for a crisis. It is not, but the propaganda machine operates on its own rules.

Good Friends: Protests Erupted in Chongjin

Thousands of North Korean women staged a massive protest against age restrictions in the Jangmadang earlier this month, said Good Friends. Discontent had been mounting since mid-February when 15 women were executed for “helping villagers cross the border into China and engaging in human trafficking.” Via World Tribue:

In early March, the authorities began to dismantle stalls that were owned by women younger than 50. That infuriated women who were already agitated over news of executions. Hundreds of women swarmed the market manager’s office in protest. It was a spontaneous outburst almost never seen in North Korea, according to the sources. “They shouted and demanded either to let them continue doing business in the open market or otherwise resume food distribution,” a source said. “It was not like South Korean-style protests we used to watch on TV. There were no organizers or leaders, but the number swelled into thousands in a very short time.” The scene was scary and surreal. But even more bizarre was that security officers did not try very hard to disperse the gathering.

[…]

According to the sources, the protest continued into the next day, and the market management office withdrew the age restriction on March 5.

IHT is also reporting that due to the increasingly scarce food situation and international jitters, grain prices in North Korean Jangmadang have skyrocketed:

The spreading fear of hard times is already helping drive up grain prices in North Korea by up to 70 percent over last year, according to experts in Seoul and North Korean defectors in South Korea who help their relatives back home through Chinese intermediaries. Kim Young Hoon, a food security analyst at the government-financed Korea Rural Economic Institute in Seoul, said the North’s food problem was particularly vulnerable to the political mood. “When the mood is bad, there is cornering and hoarding at the markets and the authorities reduce rations to save for the future,” Kim said. “It takes a heavy toll among the weak. It’s clear that the problem will get worse this year.”

Interesting times are upon us.

BREAKING NEWS: North Accuses South of Naval Incursion

From Reuters:

“The South Korean military’s warmongers have sent three battleships deep into our territorial waters in the West Sea (Yellow Sea) at around 11:45 am (0245 GMT) on April 3,” the communist state’s KCNA news agency said.

“South Korea’s military should clearly bear in mind that an unexpected countermeasure will follow if they continue to push battleships into (our waters) and raise tensions,” it said, demanding the South Korea investigate the incursion and punish those responsible.

No official comment yet from the South Korean Military. I’m really surprised by how fast things are moving with this story.

 UPDATE ONE: This comes via the Australian Broadcasting Company. Apparantly, North Korea has vowed to end all dialogue and attack the south.

North Korea says it is ready to abandon dialogue and attack the South, ignoring a call from its neighbour’s new president to return to talks aimed at ending its nuclear ambitions.

[…]

South Korea’s Defence Ministry says Pyongyang threatened “military responsive actions” during a telephone message between North Korean Lieutenant-General Kim Yong Chol and South Korean Major General Kwon Oh Sung.

More details as they come to me.

“Worse Than the Arduous March”

Citing unnamed sources, Good Friends (via the Hankyoreh) is reporting that North Korea is now in its “worst ever” food crisis, as food rations remain suspended even in the main grain belts and the capital. In an unprecedented step, authorities announced that Pyongyang citizens will not get rations until September this year. No word on how long the provinces will have to wait. Never before has such a drastic move been taken.  Even more foreboding:

A grim prediction is spreading that there will be massive deaths from famine in provincial areas of the impoverished country around May, [the Good Friends report] also said.
[…]
Rumors are circulating around major cities such as Pyongyang and Hamhung and Chongjin, both on the North’s east coast, that the North will begin to see massive deaths from famine from this month, [an unnamed North Korean] official claimed.

As rumors of famine circulate, North Korea is now threatening “unspecified countermeasures” against the South, after South Korean military authorities refused to apologize for a hypothetical remark made by Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Kim Tae-Young at a hearing before South Korea’s National Assembly earlier this week. According to the Mail and Guardian, North Korea will cease all dialogue with the South. However, how extensive the cessation will be was not made clear. Mail and Guardian talked to two North Korea analysts who believe the North will continue to rachet up tensions:

Yang Moo-Jin, of the University of North Korean Studies, said the North is following a pre-set plan to raise tensions.

Yang, speaking before the KCNA announcement, said it was expected to ban officials from crossing the land border and was “highly likely to engage in military muscle-flexing”.

“It may fire short-range missiles in the Yellow Sea, have its warships manoeuvre near the Northern Limit Line [sea border] and engage in provocative activities along the [land] border.”

Kim Yong-Hyun, of the University of Korea, forecast similar actions but said the North would be careful not to trigger an actual clash, since this would harden public opinion in the South.

Analysts believe it wants to sway the outcome of next week’s parliamentary election against the conservatives.

A Deal Within Days?

The Joongang Ilbo optimistically reports that a deal to end the Six-Party Talks impasse is at hand:

Sources said negotiations between the United States and North Korea over the North’s nuclear program declaration “have reached a final phase,” suggesting Christopher Hill, the U.S. envoy for the nuclear talks, may meet with his North Korean counterpart Kim Gye-gwan during Hill’s tour this week to Asian countries, including Indonesia and East Timor.
“If they meet again this time, the meeting will not be for another negotiation but for striking a deal,” the source said.

The deal is expected allow North Korea to skirt around allegations it helped Syria develop a nuclear facility despite Israeli Prime Minister Barack’s recent admission to Japanese Prime Minister Fukuda, as well as avoid declaring it’s highly-enriched uranium program. Joongang picks up the story:  

According to the source, the anticipated declaration is expected to state that the North perceives the U.S. suspicion that the North may have uranium-enriched programs and may have exported nuclear programs to Syria, allowing the country to address the thorny issue while neither acknowledging nor denying it.

It will be interesting to see the results of this deal, if there are any. However, if the HEU program is no longer up for discussion, then I’m not sure what the point of any deal would be. Afterall, it was North Korea’s admission regarding the development of an HEU program that got us into this mess in the first place.  Could the U.S. be setting the stage to allow North Korea to hang on to its nuclear stockpile?

NHK: North Korea Exported Rocket Launchers to Myanmar; violated UN sanctions

New revelations suggest that North Korea has been exporting rocket launchers to the Myanmar, in violation of UN sanctions. The exports began just after Myanmar and North Korea restored diplomatic ties two years ago and were carried out through a Singapore-based trading company. NHK reports:

The rockets used with the launchers are said to measure 240 millimeters in diameter and about a meter in length, and have a range of about 65 kilometers.

North Korea is believed to have a number of such multiple-tube launchers deployed along the demilitarized border with South Korea.

The UN Security Council adopted a sanctions resolution against North Korea following its nuclear tests in October 2006. The resolution bans the country from exporting or importing nuclear material, ballistic missiles and other types of conventional weapons.

The reports of North Korean exports of weapons to Myanmar, a fellow military dictatorship, has raised concerns in the United States and South Korea.
North Korea has been cut off from international economic assistance due to a deadlock in the six-party talks on its nuclear disarmament.

Myanmar  has been in the process of upgrading its military hardware, and many suspect that North Korea, which increasingly relies on arms exports to earn foreign currency, is playing the role of supplier. Last year, Myanmar came to world attention when the ruling military junta conducted a brutal and bloody crackdown on peaceful, anti-government demonstrations.

A second NHK article on North Korean-Burmese ties notes:

They say Myanmar had been buying small arms from North Korea through mediation by China and Singapore even before restoring diplomatic ties with the North last year.

The restoration of ties is believed to have enabled Myanmar to buy larger weapons from the North.

As for North Korea, a Japanese university professor and expert on Korean Peninsula affairs says North Korea has increasingly relied on arms export to obtain foreign currency, as it is getting difficult to do so through drug trading and counterfeiting.

He said North Korea may expect the United States to be less critical of its export of rocket launchers to Myanmar than of its suspected transfer of nuclear technology to countries including Syria.